The Pittsburgh Steelers are in the headlines currently, as they look to progress on contract extension talks with star pass rusher T.J. Watt, who has stayed away from the team while he seeks a new deal.

However, Watt isn’t the only key starter who could be up for an extension. Star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is entering the third year of the then-record-breaking four-year, $73.6 million deal he signed with the Steelers back in 2022.

While Fitzpatrick still has two more years left on his deal, he has no guaranteed money remaining and is entering his age-29 season. As a result, extension talks have naturally been a conversation.

Now, Fitzpatrick probably won’t earn that record-breaking-level extension that he got in 2022 with his next contract, as his numbers have dropped over the past two seasons.

After an All-Pro year in 2022, Fitzpatrick has just one interception and one forced fumble combined over the past two seasons, and he’s also creeping up on age 30. That could make Pittsburgh shy away from giving the star safety another extension, with Mark Kaboly even suggesting that the Steelers are more likely to move on from Fitzpatrick than pay him again.

“[T.J. Watt’s next contract] may be the last time they have to [pay big money] for a while,” Kaboly said on his podcast. “What type of generational player do they have on the roster right now coming up in two or three years? Probably nobody. I think there’s a better chance of Minkah getting cut than getting a $40 million deal next year or whatever.”

With Fitzpatrick still having another two years on his contract, the Steelers may elect not to engage in contract extension talks this offseason. But, the organization could also try to get a more team-friendly deal with Fitzpatrick done if they do choose an extension, getting the safety more guaranteed money in the process.

Let’s look at what a potential extension could look like.

Baseline numbers for a Minkah Fitzpatrick contract extension

Kerby Joseph is currently the NFL’s highest-paid safety, earning a four-year, $86 million extension from the Detroit Lions this offseason. Only he and Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. have eclipsed the $20 million-per-year mark at the position.

Of course, both players were under 25 years old when signing their extensions, while Fitzpatrick will be heading into his age-29 season in 2025.

The veteran safety market has really deteriorated in recent years. Perhaps a good baseline to look at is Kyle Dugger’s four-year, $58 million deal with the New England Patriots from last offseason. Dugger was 28 at the time and was a Pro Bowl-caliber player before a down year in 2024.

Now, Fitzpatrick has made the Pro Bowl in three straight years, but he hasn’t made splash plays and missed seven games in 2023 due to injury. He’s also two years older than Dugger at the time of his extension, so a longer-term deal seems out of the cards with the Steelers.

Budda Baker’s three-year, $54 million deal could be a ceiling for Fitzpatrick, as the Arizona Cardinals safety has been more productive, but is around the same age. Baker has made six straight Pro Bowls and has been a first or second-team All-Pro in three of the past five years.

Really, there aren’t many great baselines when considering Fitzpatrick’s production and age, but it’s notable that the safety market generally is one of the weaker position groups when it comes to extensions for veterans nearing the wrong side of 30.

Projecting a new Minkah Fitzpatrick deal

Instantly, it makes sense that a Fitzpatrick extension would be a one-to-two-year agreement, adding guaranteed money for the safety in the short term while decreasing the annual average and lowering his cap hit for the upcoming season.

Additionally, the $15 million-per-year range would make sense. There are 10 safeties in the league currently at the mark. While most of them don’t have the accolades that Fitzpatrick has put together, they were all younger at the time of signing, with every player except Baker being 26 or younger.

I would expect the Steelers to guarantee one year of compensation, plus the signing bonus, to sweeten the deal, but that would effectively lower Fitzpatrick’s 2025 cap hit and keep both sides content heading into the season.

A three-year deal with the same amount of guarantees could also be a possibility to aid the structure of the extension, as the Steelers would have an additional year to spread out the signing bonus.

Now, an extension this offseason doesn’t seem too likely. But, if the Steelers were to engage in talks, they could reach a more team-friendly contract that gets Fitzpatrick some guaranteed money and keeps their safety content for the upcoming season.

That would also still allow for flexibility in the future, should Pittsburgh want to move off Fitzpatrick after the 2025 season.

Projection: 2 years, $32 million, $16 million guaranteed at signing