Video Summary

Here's a summary of the 2024 US presidential election forecast:

As we head into the final stretch with exactly 50 days to go until the election, let's take a closer look at the electoral map. We'll be using individual betting odds to fill in the map, rather than traditional polls. Since voting doesn't end simultaneously across all 50 states, we'll start with the eastern states that will close their polls first and move westward.

For now, let's focus on the six states with polls closing at 7:00 p.m. EST. Trump is all but guaranteed to win in Indiana, Kentucky, and South Carolina, while KLA Harris will likely win in Vermont and Virginia, with Georgia being a slightly more competitive state.

Fast-forward to the next set of poll closures at 7:30 p.m. EST, where West Virginia will solidly back Trump, and Ohio and North Carolina will be closer contests. North Carolina will likely lean towards Trump, while Ohio is a slightly more competitive state.

Later that evening, at 8:00 p.m. EST, we'll see the largest batch of poll closures, covering 14 states worth a combined 171 electoral votes. While some states are easily tipped towards one candidate or the other, a few contests will be closer. In Florida, Trump has an 84% chance of winning, while in New Hampshire, KLA Harris is the clear favorite. Pennsylvania will be a tightly contested state, with Trump holding a slight edge.

Finally, we'll end the night with the last poll closures at 9:00 p.m. EST, covering states worth 157 electoral votes, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Minnesota. With these closures, we can start to see who's on track to win the night and where the most competitive states are. Trump is heavily favored in most of the southern states, while KLA Harris has a stronger hold in the northeastern states.