Video Summary

The 2024 election cycle is heating up, and the latest betting odds show that former President Donald Trump is now the favorite to win. Trump's recent surge in the odds has put him ahead of Kamala Harris, with over a 50% chance of winning. He leads in several key states, including Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, and holds a strong lead in the swing states. While Harris still leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, her leads have been dwindling.

Trump's advantage is also reflected in the author's election model, which uses job approval ratings to predict vote share. The model, which has proven accurate in the past, shows Trump with a 49% national vote share, a four-point lead over Harris. The author's other models, including a polling bias model and a favorability model, all confirm Trump's lead.

The author notes that Trump's lead is not due to bias, as they themselves have shown to be accurate in past elections. In 2020, their model predicted a Biden victory with nearly 100% accuracy. Now, the same model is predicting a Trump victory in 2024.

The author also emphasizes the significance of RFK Jr's potential endorsement of Trump, which could boost Trump's chances even further. With the election not likely to be close if held today, Trump is well-positioned to take back the White House.