Video Summary

Are you looking to create a sports betting model but don't know where to start? This article is for you. The goal is to introduce the concept of sports betting modeling at its most basic level. The model presented is a simple linear regression model that uses the NFL's Simple Rating System (SRS) to predict the margin of victory. The model is easy to create and only requires basic Excel functions.

The model is not designed to make you money, but rather to demonstrate the basic principles of sports betting modeling. The author uses the NFL as an example, with the goal of creating a simple model that can be used to predict the margin of victory. The model uses the SRS rating, which is a simple way to assign a power rating to every NFL team.

The model is created by using a lookup table to populate the SRS ratings for each team, and then using a simple Excel equation to calculate the margin of victory. The author then uses linear regression to create a line fit plot, which shows the predicted margin of victory based on the SRS ratings.

The model has an R-squared value of 31.7%, which means that about 31% of the margins can be explained by the SRS ratings. The model also has a low p-value, which indicates that the model is significant.

The author then uses the model to predict the margin of victory for a hypothetical matchup between the Cowboys and the Lions. The predicted margin is 1.9067, which means that the Cowboys would be favored by that amount.