Video Summary

Cracking the Code on Sports Betting: Understanding Plus EV

Sports betting enthusiast, listen up! While 99% of enthusiasts will lose money in the long run, those familiar with Plus EV (Value) sports betting can secure a profit. In layman's terms, Place bets that have an edge over the sports book, ensuring a mathematical guarantee to profit over the long-term.

To grasp Plus EV, you must first grasp how sports books make money. They set lines after analyzing data, ensuring there's a 50.4% chance of making a profit. For illustration, consider an over-under bet on the Celtics – Trailblazers game.

In this bet, it's 50/50 whether the game goes above or below 211.7 points. The implied odds are 50%. However, the payout offered is -110, representing a 52.8% chance of winning according to the sports book (the house edge). But here's the catch! You'll only win even money (1:1) if you win while losing your entire stake whenever you lose.

The catch lies in the house Edge (Vig). Instead of offering a fair prize (1:1 in a coin flip), Sports books set a payout guaranteeing a profit. Our coin flip example illustrates what this means: if someone offers you a 94-cent payout for a favorable outcome, but you stake a dollar, you gain only 94 cents plus lose your entire dollar loss when you lose. That's the essence of negative expected value betting for the masses.

Armed with this knowledge, it's crucial to note that the odds you set don't necessarily reflect accurate probabilities. Sports books rely on algorithms and data superiority, making it nearly unprofitable for individuals sans insider information.

Real-life example: Warriors (@ -200) vs Spurs (@ +168). Without using a no-vigor calculator, you'd accept these odds. However, if you input these stakes into a calculator, Fair odds reveal +178 to -178. This -200 payout translates to 66.6% while +168 is now 37.3%

This 13.8% house Edge translates, meaning the house will accumulate an edge on this investment. It's plain math, folks! Most people lose money in online betting due to the unfathomable house Edge structure.

The more limbs you add to a losing parlay, the probability of losing grows exponentially (**99.4% loser for every $100), while the profit margin expands for the book. We urge you to rework your betting strategy and master the art of Plus Value betting to ensure a substantial profit in the long game.