Video Summary

The key to winning at sports betting is not about picking the winner, but about getting the right price and letting variance do the hard work for you. Most people focus on form, but this is a diversion away from the real issue, which is the price. The bookmakers' job is to make money from you, so they will offer poor value in the hopes you'll take it. To beat them, you need to find value in the market, and this means looking for opportunities where the odds are above the true value.

The key is to look in the right places, such as lower-quality horse races in the evening or lower leagues in football. Use betting exchanges and sports books close to the starting time of an event to find the true value of an outcome. Look for direct comparisons between the odds offered by different bookmakers and exchanges, and take advantage of the disparity.

The more volume you can get on a selection, the better, and the bigger the disparity in odds, the bigger the stake you should take. The key is to be in the line, beating the bookies to the draw, and to confirm the signal by betting at the right moment. Over a longer period of time, you will emerge a consistent winner, even with a sequence of losing events.