Video Summary

In advance of the upcoming NHL season, it's a good time to learn how to set your own odds for NHL games. This method is particularly well-suited for hockey and soccer, and can be applied to other sports as well. By setting your own odds, you can gain an edge by comparing them to the bookmaker's odds and identifying potential value bets.

One way to do this is by using a Poisson distribution, which is a statistical model that is well-suited for sports like hockey and soccer, where scores often come in single increments. The model uses two key statistics: attacking strength and defensive strength, which are calculated by dividing a team's goals for and against per game by the league average.

Attacking strength is calculated by dividing a team's goals for by the league average, while defensive strength is calculated by dividing a team's goals against by the league average. The higher the attacking strength, the better the team's offense, and the lower the defensive strength, the better the team's defense.

Using these statistics, we can calculate each team's expected goals for and against, which can then be used to set our own odds. For example, let's use the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Islanders. By plugging in the respective team's attacking and defensive strengths, we can calculate their expected goals for and against. This can be done by using a formula that takes into account the attacking strength of one team and the defensive strength of the other team.

By using this method, we can get a more accurate estimate of each team's expected goals for and against, which can be used to set our own odds. This can be a powerful tool for identifying value bets and gaining an edge over the bookmaker.