Video Summary

The upcoming football season is here, and many fans are eager to start betting on the sportsbook. A popular bet among enthusiasts is the goal market, where you can predict the number of goals scored in a game. To improve your chances of winning, understanding how goal markets work and exploiting any advantages is crucial. In this article, we'll explore how to use last season's data to create your own odds.

By analyzing data from top leagues like the English Premier League, Italian Serie A, French Ligue 1, Spanish La Liga, and German Bundesliga, we can identify patterns and trends. One such pattern is the “home goal advantage,” which is the difference between goals scored at home and away. In the English Premier League, this advantage was 0.32 goals, while in Italy's Serie A, it was 0.25 goals.

These numbers can be used to calculate the likelihood of a game going over or under 2.5 goals. For instance, in the English Premier League, the over 2.5 goals market won 64.8% of the time. We can also use these numbers to create our own odds for other markets, such as both teams to score.

By using the Pools Distribution (PRED), a statistical technique that models the probability of a given number of events occurring, we can calculate the likelihood of a team winning, drawing, or losing. This can help us identify patterns and trends that may not be immediately apparent. For example, in Italy's Serie A, the draw was relatively rare, occurring only 21.6% of the time.

To take it to the next level, we can use data from other websites, such as XG Score, which takes data from Football Data UK, to calculate odds and probabilities. This can give us a more accurate representation of the likely outcome of a game.

When comparing the results of our calculations with actual outcomes from last season, we find that our predictions are surprisingly accurate. The English Premier League and Italian Serie A show a close match between calculated and actual results, while the German Bundesliga is slightly off. The biggest weakness of this approach is the lack of individual league analysis, but this can be improved by taking a long-term view.

Overall, understanding how to use goal market data to create your own odds can give you a significant edge when betting on football. By analyzing patterns and trends, and using statistical techniques like PRED, you can make more informed decisions and increase your chances of winning.