Video Summary

When it comes to betting parlays, most people get it wrong. They're looking for a way to turn a small profit into a big one, but the reality is that it usually ends in a loss. However, there is one exception to this rule, and it involves using probabilities to your advantage. By focusing on two-team parlays with player props, you can actually make a profit in the long run.

The key is to find the probabilities of the player props actually occurring, and then combine those probabilities to get an overall probability of the two-team parlay. For example, if you find that a player has an 80% chance of getting at least one hit in a game, and a pitcher has a 70% chance of going under 2.5 earned runs, you can combine those probabilities to get an overall probability of 56%.

To do this, you'll need to convert the probabilities into fractions, multiply them together, and then calculate the overall probability. You'll also need to make sure that the odds you're getting correlate with the probability, giving you a plus edge.

One thing to keep in mind is that this only works with two-team parlays, and even then, you need to be careful to avoid giving yourself a negative edge. With three or more teams, the probabilities become too complicated and you're unlikely to make a profit.

By following these steps and being careful to avoid negative edges, you can use probabilities to your advantage and make a profit with two-team parlays.