Video Summary

Implied Probability in MMA Betting

When it comes to sports betting, understanding implied probability is crucial for making informed decisions. In this article, we'll explore how to calculate implied probability and its significance in MMA betting.

For our example, let's consider two hypothetical fighters, A and B. Fighter A is a +130 underdog, while Fighter B is a -150 favorite. To calculate the implied probability of each fighter winning, we'll use the American odds system.

For Fighter A, we'll take the odds of +130 and add 100 to get 230. Then, we'll divide 100 by 230 to get a decimal of 0.43. Multiplying this decimal by 100 gives us a percentage of 43, indicating that Fighter A is projected to win 43% of the time.

For Fighter B, we'll take the odds of -150 and add 100 to get 250. Then, we'll divide 150 by 250 to get a decimal of 0.6. Multiplying this decimal by 100 gives us a percentage of 60, indicating that Fighter B is projected to win 60% of the time.

When looking at these numbers, we can see that Fighter B is the clear favorite, with a higher implied probability of winning. However, if we believe that Fighter B is only going to win 55% of the time, this may not be the best bet for us. Conversely, if we believe that Fighter B is going to win 70-80% of the time, the -150 odds may be a good value bet.

Similarly, for the underdog Fighter A, if we believe that they are going to win 55-60% of the time, the +130 odds may not be a good value bet. However, if we believe that they are going to win 70-80% of the time, the +130 odds may be a good value bet.

Understanding implied probability can help you make more informed decisions when placing bets. By calculating the implied probability of each fighter winning, you can determine whether the odds are reflecting the true likelihood of the outcome. This can help you identify good value bets and avoid bad ones.