Video Summary

Positive expected value (EV) betting strategy is a reliable and profitable method for making money in sports betting. It's a simple concept that calculates the probability of a bet's outcome and multiplies it by the potential payout. The goal is to find bets with a positive EV, which means that the expected return is greater than the risk. In simple terms, it's like finding a good deal where you're likely to come out ahead.

One way to calculate EV is to use the formula: EV = (probability of winning) x (potential payout) + (probability of losing) x (stake). For example, if the odds of a team winning are 2.8, the expected value would be 1.8 – 1 (stake) = 0.8, since the team has a 0.4286 (or 42.86%) chance of winning.

To find positive EV bets, you can use online tools or consult with betting exchange websites, such as Pinnacle, which provide accurate prices based on supply and demand. Positive EV bets are available every day, often in lower-quality events, such as foreign football matches or Greyhound racing.

A key advantage of positive EV betting is that it allows you to avoid the house edge, which is built into traditional bookmaker odds. This means that you can make a profit in the long run, as shown in the example of a football match with a 50% chance of either team winning at 2.0 odds. By betting on the team with the higher EV, you would make a profit of 10 pounds, while an Arbitrage bettor would only make a profit of 2.50.

Overall, positive EV betting is a reliable and profitable strategy for sports betting, provided you stick to the rules and avoid short-term fluctuations. With the right tools and information, you can increase your chances of success and build a stable income.